MBSB Research Projects 4.0 - 5.0 Pct Annual GDP Growth Under 13MP

KUALA LUMPUR, July 31 (Bernama) -- The 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP) will likely target sustainable gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.0-5.0 per cent annually from 2026 to 2030, driven by infrastructure development, domestic consumption and strategic initiatives like the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone, according to MBSB Investment Bank (MBSB Research). 

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim will be tabling the 13MP this afternoon. 

MBSM Research said private consumption, which accounts for more than 60 per cent of GDP, is expected to remain a key growth engine, supported by rising employment and income levels. 

The investment bank has anticipated that development expenditure will be maintained at around RM80 billion annually, contributing approximately 3.3 per cent of GDP, to ensure strong project flow and earnings visibility for construction players. 

"We opine that this level of spending is crucial to support multi-year infrastructure projects and public services, while avoiding excessive fiscal tightening that could hinder broader economic growth. 

"The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.0 per cent of GDP by 2030, balancing investment needs with responsible fiscal management," it said in a note today. 

The investment bank opined that the key infrastructure projects set to anchor sector growth potentially include the mass rapid transit 3, Penang light rail transit, the East Coast Rail Link, Pan Borneo Highway, expansions at airports such as Penang and Miri, and various critical road projects nationwide.

MBSB Research expects Sabah and Sarawak to receive substantial infrastructure funding to improve road networks, energy transition and logistics infrastructure. 

"Sarawak alone has proposed RM38.4 billion in allocations for new road construction and upgrades to existing roads, RM20.0 billion to ensure a clean water supply and RM7.90 billion for new health facilities. 

"Sabah's infrastructure wish list includes comprehensive flood mitigation and essential connectivity improvements," it explained. 

Additionally, the 13MP emphasises public-private partnerships (PPPs), further reinforced by the PPP Master Plan CY30 (PIKAS CY30), to help reduce fiscal pressure and accelerate infrastructure rollout.

PIKAS CY30 outlines several notable PPP projects, including the West Ipoh Span Expressway, Putrajaya-Bangi Expressway, KL Sentral Station redevelopment, Lebuhraya Pantai Timur 3, Kuala Lumpur–Karak Highway expansion and the West Port Container Terminal (CT10-CT17) expansion. 

These projects are expected to substantially raise private sector participation, driving a steady flow of infrastructure construction jobs for industry players. 

MBSB Research also expects the 13MP to address structural challenges, with reforms planned across public service delivery, education, healthcare and housing.

It added that labour market transformation, which includes raising the skilled employment ratio to 35 per cent and tackling underemployment, aims to build a resilient and inclusive economy that supports long-term prosperity for all Malaysians.

Meanwhile, MBSB Research expects corporate earnings to trend higher with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about +5.0 per cent from 2026 to 2030.

As the local equity benchmark FBM KLCI is estimated to register earnings of 109.4 points in 2025, a CAGR of +5.0 per cent during the next five years will push the FBM KLCI earnings to 139.6 points by end-2030, it added.  

"We, therefore, make ballpark projections for the FBM KLCI in 2030 with a high target of 2,510 points, a low target of 1,810 points and an average target of 2,230 points," it said.

-- BERNAMA 

TAGS: MBSB Investment Bank, 13MP, fiscal deficit, construction, GDP

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