Story and Data Visualisation: Shaza Al Muzayen
KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 28 (Bernama) -- In 1970, Malaysia took stock of itself as a nation for the first time: 10.9 million people.
But for those who want to know where the nation started out at – historical estimates tell us that in 1957, Peninsular Malaysia’s population stood at 6.28 million.The figure grew to 8.93 million by 1969.
However, 1970 was the first true nationwide count after the country’s formation in 1963, says the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM).
Today, 68 years later, we stand at 34.2 million.
This boom was initially driven by persistently high fertility rates and significant improvements in healthcare, which reduced infant and child mortality.
In fact, the growth was so rapid that by 1966, the government established the National Family Planning Board (now called the National Population and Family Development Board) to moderate the pace for the sake of economic development.
Established under the Family Planning Act 1966 (Act 42), the board was tasked with rolling out Malaysia’s national family planning programme, aimed at moderating population growth to better support economic development.
(The Family Planning Act 1966 (Act 42) was later revised and is now known as the Population and Family Development Act 1966 (Act 352).)
In a striking policy reversal, the 1980s introduced an ambitious new goal: a population of 70 million by 2100.
Introduced in 1984, the new population policy reflected the view that a larger population could support national development if quality and productivity were improved.
However, the latest data suggests this target is receding far into the horizon.
THE DIP
The first signal of change appeared in 2020, when Malaysia’s population saw a rare dip. DOSM attributed the slight decline from 32.5 million to 32.4 million not to a change in citizen numbers, but to a fall in non-citizens – a consequence of border closures and the exodus of foreign workers during the COVID-19 Movement Control Order.
This blip was a precursor to a much larger trend. Chief Statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin stated in July that while the population will continue to grow, its rate is expected to plummet from 1.7 percent in 2020 to a mere 0.1 percent by 2060.
DOSM projects the population will peak at just 42.38 million in 2059 before beginning a gradual decline, to as low as 41.43 million by 2070. The primary driver? A sustained and significant decline in childbirths.
Fertility rates have dipped below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman since 2013.
(To maintain a stable population, international bodies like the United Nations recommend a total fertility rate of at least 2.1 children per woman - the level at which each generation can replace itself.)
A declining marriage rate further shortens the reproductive window, accelerating the drop in births.
AGEING OUT
This slowdown is part of a deeper transformation: Malaysia is growing older, faster.
Roughly one in seven citizens will be aged 65 or above by 2048, officially making Malaysia an ageing nation, Economy Minister Datuk Seri Amir Hamzah Azizan told the Dewan Rakyat on Aug 26, citing DOSM.
The share of citizens aged 65 and above is currently 8 percent. The figure is projected to rise markedly by 2040, creating new challenges for the workforce, healthcare, and social support systems.
In response, the government is crafting a new roadmap. The recently launched National Ageing Blueprint 2025–2045, to be implemented under the 13th Malaysia Plan (13MP), outlines a "whole-of-nation" approach.
The strategy moves away from the traditional three-stage life model. The new vision promotes a "multi-stage life," encouraging part-time work for older individuals, expanding home-based care, strengthening financial support, and reviewing schemes like the EPF withdrawal system.
“Retirement is no longer a fixed stage,” he said.
As Malaysia turns 68, its demographic curve is no longer about growth but about balance. How the nation responds now will determine whether ageing becomes a burden or a new chapter of opportunity.
(DOSM’s population figures include both citizens and non-citizens, but exclude temporary residents. Non-citizens are defined as individuals without Malaysian citizenship who reside in Malaysia for six months or more in the reference year, such as foreign workers, expatriates, and international students.)
-- BERNAMA
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