Weather Risks Cloud Pepper Supply, Prices Seen Firm But Volatile In 2027

By Vijian Paramasivam

PHNOM PENH, Nov 14 (Bernama) -- Irregular weather patterns in pepper-growing regions threaten supplies and could add volatility to a market that is otherwise expected to stay firm in 2027.

The International Pepper Community (IPC) estimated global production at around 530,000 metric tonnes this year but the outlook for 2027 remains uncertain, largely due to the effects of El Niño and climate change.

Global production stood at 552,635 metric tonnes last year.

“I expect the global pepper market to remain relatively firm but increasingly sensitive to weather-related supply disruptions. We are seeing challenging weather conditions across producing regions, including prolonged rainfall, drought risks and rising temperatures.

“These can affect flowering, plant health, yields and cultivation costs. However, we need actual crop assessments before quantifying production losses,” Jakarta-headquartered IPC Executive Director Marina Novira Anggraini told Bernama on the sidelines of the “Cambodia Cashew and Pepper Trade Forum” held in Phnom Penh from Nov 10 to 12.

Major black and white pepper producers -- Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, India, Sri Lanka and Cambodia  -- are experiencing adverse weather conditions that could affect yields.

According to Spices Board India, black pepper production fell sharply over two years due to weather-related problems.

Output dropped from 126,038 metric tonnes in 2023–2024 to 77,533 metric tonnes in 2024–2025.

The board estimates merely 55,000 to 58,000 metric tonnes in 2025–2026.

“Looking towards the upcoming Karnataka harvest, beginning January to February 2027, we anticipate a cautious, moderate recovery rather than a major rebound.

“We project 2027 Indian output to stabilise or post a modest five per cent to 10 per cent recovery over 2026 levels, subject to favourable weather through winter maturation,” Karnataka Planters Association Chairman M.C. Kariappa told Bernama from the southern state.

In Karnataka, which produces roughly 60 per cent of the national harvest, farmers have adopted agronomic measures to overcome consecutive El Nino-linked dry spells and erratic monsoons, he said.

“Estates have expanded drip irrigation systems to deliver critical lifesaving moisture during delayed pre-monsoon windows in April and May, which is vital for uniform spike initiation (flowering) and preventing berry shedding,” said Kariappa.

Southeast Asia is not insulated from climate woes either. The Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association said the country exported about 237,700 metric tonnes of the commodity from January to October, valued at more than US$1.53 billion (RM6.25 billion).  

However, the association cautioned that pepper exports could face greater challenges in 2027.

“Prolonged conflicts and adverse weather conditions affecting global supply may make it difficult for the sector to maintain this year's growth momentum,” Vietnamese Nhan Dan news portal reported on Thursday.

Indonesia produces about 50,000 metric tonnes of pepper annually, while neighbouring Malaysia produces nearly 32,000 metric tonnes.

As of November 2026, Brazilian black pepper prices hovered around US$5,700 (RM23,289) per metric tonne, while Malaysian black pepper (ASTA) was priced at US$9,100 (RM37,180), according to IPC data.

“A firm but potentially volatile market in 2027. If weather disruptions reduce exportable supply, prices could strengthen. However, stronger harvests and cautious buying could limit those gains.

“My message for 2027 is that protecting productive farms, improving climate resilience and ensuring economically viable returns for growers will be just as important as maintaining export growth,” said Marina.

The IPC’s assessment comes as Indonesia prepares to hold the 54th Annual Session and Meetings of the International Pepper Community from Nov 30 to Dec 4 in Bali.

Demand for pepper is growing steadily, as the pungent, aromatic spice is used in more value-added products such as ice cream, soup powders, chocolates and beverages.

The global black pepper market is estimated to be worth US$3.6 billion (RM15 billion) this year and projected to hit US$5.14 billion (RM21 billion) by 2035.

-- BERNAMA