Trump's Political Influence Remains Strong Despite Midterm Setback -- Analyst

By Zarul Effendi Razali

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 5 (Bernama) -- US President Donald Trump's loss of congressional control in the 2026 midterm elections may constrain his legislative agenda but is unlikely to weaken his political influence or support among his conservative base, crisis and threat analyst Peter Nicoll says.

He said the outcome would shift Trump's political power from legislative policymaking to executive action, as Democrats prepare to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in January, while Trump remains in office until January 2029.

"Losing Congress shifts Donald Trump's political powers from legislating to executive action. But his core brand of politics remains unweakened," he said during Bernama World TV's programme, "The 2026 US Midterm Elections: What The Results Mean For America And The World".

Nicoll said Trump's political approach had always relied heavily on direct public communication and rallies rather than consensus-building in Washington, enabling him to maintain considerable influence over the conservative base and his party.

He said Trump's political movement would likely enter a new tactical phase, although its direction remained uncertain following the midterm results.

With Democrats set to take control of Congress, Nicoll said meaningful accountability should come through greater transparency and rigorous oversight rather than political theatrics.

He said this could include public committee hearings, exercising subpoena powers over executive agencies, and thorough budget reviews to ensure the administration remained accountable under the law.

"The goal is to act as a constitutional check on executive overreach, ensuring that the administration is answering to the law rather than just engaged in partisan gridlock," he said.

On the possibility of another political shift before Trump leaves office, Nicoll said economic pressures and voter fatigue with institutional overreach could become major drivers of political change.

He said a sudden economic downturn, persistent high inflation or growing public exhaustion with aggressive cultural politics could trigger another ideological backlash among American voters, particularly when a government failed to deliver on issues affecting their daily lives.

Nicoll also said Trump's political career had demonstrated to politicians worldwide how far established political norms and unwritten conventions could be challenged while maintaining a loyal support base.

"Political rules are only as strong as the institutions willing to enforce them," he said, adding that controlling the political narrative could sometimes outpace conventional legal or institutional resistance.

However, he said the midterm results also indicated that Trump's appeal among his core supporters did not necessarily translate into broader support among the American electorate.

-- BERNAMA