CPO Prices To Stay Above RM4,600 Per Tonne In November -- MPOC

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 22 (Bernama) -- Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain firm above RM4,600 per tonne in November, supported by seasonal production declines and sustained biodiesel consumption, said the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).

The organisation said India's recent decision to reduce import duties on vegetable oils is expected to make imported palm oil cheaper. This is expected to encourage imports in the coming months.

MPOC said in a statement today that Malaysia’s palm oil production is believed to have peaked in September, rising by 16.4 per cent to 2.11 million tonnes, supported by higher fresh fruit bunch (FFB) output and improved oil extraction rates.

Palm oil production is expected to decline seasonally over the next five months, with inventories to trend lower from November 2026 through February 2027. This should further support CPO prices in the final quarter of 2026.

“Meanwhile, cumulative palm oil exports increased by 4.3 per cent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026, despite a 12.1 per cent decline to 1.12 million tonnes in September,” MPOC said.

Limited vessel availability in the Strait of Malacca and increased competition from Indonesia also weakened monthly exports.

MPOC said the weak export performance in September is likely to be temporary. Shipments are projected to rise significantly between October and December with more vessels available and tighter soft oil supplies, the statement said.

The easing of palm oil prices from their September highs could also encourage global buyers to secure forward shipments at more favourable prices, MPOC said.

Globally, ongoing logistical disruptions in the Black Sea region are expected to continue constraining crushing activity, limiting sunflower oil availability in the global market over the next few months unless a safe shipping corridor is established.

This is despite expectations of record global sunflowerseed production of 65.3 million tonnes in 2027, with most of the increase coming from the Black Sea region.

“Apart from the constraints on sunflower oil supply, soybean oil availability from South America is also reduced as the region enters its soybean planting season from October to December,” MPOC said.

Against this backdrop, India is expected to rely more on palm oil imports to meet its vegetable oil requirements in the coming months, particularly to replenish stocks following the Diwali celebrations in November.

A similar trend is expected in China, where reduced soybean supplies from Brazil could encourage higher palm oil consumption.

The main downside risks to the price outlook include easing energy prices and weaker-than-expected global vegetable oil consumption in the food sector due to inflation and economic pressures.

-- BERNAMA