Asia Sugarcane Growers Face Weather Pressure As Global Festival Demand Looms

By Vijian Paramasivam

PHNOM PENH, Sept 19 (Bernama) -- The combination of El Nino and climate-related weather extremes threatens to hit sugarcane production across Asia, raising the risk of global price volatility as major festivals approach.

In key Asian sugarcane-growing regions, including India, Thailand, Pakistan and the Philippines, prolonged dry spells, water shortages and pest infestations remain risks to production.

India, the world’s second-largest sugar producer after Brazil, could see output shrinking as two key sugar-producing states, Maharashtra and Karnataka, suffer from a severe rain deficits that will reduce cane planting.

“In India, we expect crop losses of about five per cent during the sugarcane season, from October 2026 to September 2027.

“Sugar production is expected to be around 28 to 29 million metric tonnes in 2026-27 without counting diversion to ethanol (versus) 30.6 million metric tonnes in the preceding year,” New Delhi-based All India Sugar Trade Association Chief Advisor Gopal Krishan Sood told Bernama.

“The combination of El Nino and climate change will amplify the adverse impact on prominent sugarcane-growing areas in India. We are already seeing the effects, including rising temperatures, rainfall deficiencies, droughts and floods.

“The two main sugarcane-producing states, Maharashtra and Karnataka, which together account for about 50 per cent of the country’s sugar production, have been greatly affected by weather-related problems.”

However, Uttar Pradesh, another major sugar-producing state, is expected to produce about 9.5 million metric tonnes of sugar, only slightly below the forecast of 9.8 million tonnes, due to sufficient rainfall and good irrigation, Sood said.

India is home to about five million sugarcane farmers. 

Sugar is a key ingredient in confectionery, beverages and snacks, making seasonal demand particularly important.

With India’s Diwali in early November, followed by Christmas in December, demand is set to rise in the international market. Any sharp price increase could leave consumers with a bitter taste.

India consumes about 30 million metric tonnes of sugar annually, making it one of the world’s largest sugar-consuming markets.

Thailand, the world’s second-largest sugar exporter after Brazil, is expected to see production fall below 10 million metric tonnes in 2026-27, from about 12 million tonnes in the previous season, with adverse weather conditions, according to Thai media reports.

In the Philippines, a leading sugar producer in Southeast Asia after Thailand, cane farmers are also expecting a difficult harvest.

“El Nino is not the only cause of the expected decline in Philippine sugar production, but it could become the factor that compounds an already serious problem.

“The industry is entering a potentially very strong El Nino, with RSSI (Red Striped Soft-Scale Insect) damage, reduced farm inputs and many growers financially weakened by the previous crop year,” the Philippines Confederation of Sugar Producers Associations President Aurelio Gerardo J. Valderrama Jr. told Bernama.

The nation’s Sugar Regulatory Administration is projecting production at around 1.7 million metric tonnes. 

And if severe drought develops in Negros Occidental province and other major producing areas, production could fall below early estimates, said Valderrama. 

Farmers in Negros, the Philippines’ “sugar bowl”, which accounts for 63 per cent of the country’s sugar production, could face economic hardship.

Even before the latest El Nino, sugar producers faced low mill-gate prices, pest infestations, rising input and labour costs, labour shortages and poor mill efficiency, which discouraged investment in farm productivity, according to Valderrama.

However, Pakistan Sugar Mills Association Chairman Chaudhry Zaka Ashraf said El Nino effects are not uniform, as the outcome depends on multiple factors.

“Pakistan should not assume that El Nino alone will reduce sugar production. Its effect depends on the strength and timing of the event, irrigation-water availability, monsoon behaviour, heat during the grain-growth phase, and conditions near harvest.

“This year, the early crop growth was good, with no severe lodging or flooding, resulting in no reduction in sugar recovery. (However) a slight decline in yield per acre may be expected due to reduced stalk weight caused by El Nino heatwaves, mites and dry winds,” he told Bernama.

Pakistan has produced about 7.7 million tonnes of sugar so far this year, according to the association.

-- BERNAMA