Super El Nino Likelihood Above 90 Pct For Oct-Dec, Could Match 1997-98 - MetMalaysia

By Muhammad Adil Muzaffar Mohd Fisol

PUTRAJAYA, Aug 18 (Bernama) -- The likelihood of El Nino, which typically brings hotter and drier conditions, reaching the ‘very strong’ or ‘Super El Nino’ category between October and December has risen to more than 90 per cent, according to Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia) director-general Dr Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip.

He said the forecast was based on a significant upward trend in the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) since the middle of the year, coupled with recent weekly observations showing sea surface temperatures more than 1.8 degrees Celsius above the climatological average.

“This situation indicates that El Nino is continuing to strengthen and is expected to peak towards the end of 2026.

“The probability of El Nino reaching the very strong category between October and December 2026 is high, at more than 90 per cent, based on the latest forecasts issued by international climate models,” he told Bernama.

Mohd Hisham said current global climate patterns indicated that the 2026–2027 El Nino could rank among the most extreme events ever recorded, with its impact potentially exceeding or at least matching that of the very strong El Nino episodes in 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.

The highest temperature recorded during the 1997–1998 El Nino episode was 40.1 degrees Celsius at the Chuping Meteorological Station in Perlis on April 9, 1998, while the 2015–2016 episode saw 39.3 degrees Celsius recorded at the Batu Embun Meteorological Station in Jerantut, Pahang, on April 10, 2016.

“Experience during the Super El Nino episodes in those years showed that the country experienced hotter and drier conditions than usual, accompanied by a significant reduction in rainfall in some areas towards the end of the Northeast Monsoon (NEM) and during the inter-monsoon period between February and May.

“Based on the patterns of previous episodes and the effects of global warming in recent years, the increase in temperatures this time is expected to be more pronounced from February to May next year,” he said.

Mohd Hisham said the strong El Nino was also expected to occur alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), potentially intensifying the reduction in rainfall across the region.

“El Nino reduces the supply of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, while a positive IOD reduces the supply of moisture from the Indian Ocean,” he said.

“The combination increases the likelihood of hotter and drier conditions, as well as longer spells without rain, across the southern ASEAN region, including Malaysia,” he said.

Mohd Hisham assured that MetMalaysia would continue to closely monitor developments involving both phenomena, as well as weather conditions and the regional risk of forest fires.

He said that during a positive IOD phase, sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia were relatively cooler than those in the western Indian Ocean.

“This typically reduces cloud formation and rainfall over Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia,” he said.

-- BERNAMA