KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 17 (Bernama) -- Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB) expects Malaysia’s 2026 current account to remain firmly in surplus, maintaining a forecast at 2.1 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP), compared with 1.6 per cent in 2025.
In a note today, the investment bank said Malaysia’s external position should remain resilient despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties from the conflict in West Asia.
“Costlier energy and a softer global demand could crimp parts of world trade, but Malaysia’s exposure is cushioned by the electrical and electronics (E&E) and artificial intelligence (AI) upcycle, particularly semiconductors, servers and data-centre infrastructure.
“The (positive) second quarter of 2026 (2Q 2026) GDP print supports this view, with growth stepping up to 6.0 per cent (1Q 2026: 5.4 per cent), while a rebound in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and non-E&E shipments adds further breadth,” it said.
Kenanga IB also said hyperscaler capital expenditure and inventory normalisation across advanced economies should keep Malaysia’s export demand supported through 2026, while tourism and digital-infrastructure spending should lift services exports.
“A firmer ringgit could nudge imports higher, and energy costs remain a swing factor, but we expect the external balance to stay comfortably in surplus,” it said.
On Friday, the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) announced that Malaysia’s current account balance recorded a surplus of RM10.8 billion in 2Q 2026, supported by a substantial increase in the goods surplus to RM40.7 billion.
DOSM said the surplus cushioned the decline in the services account, which turned to a deficit of RM0.7 billion from a surplus of RM6.4 billion in 1Q 2026.
Meanwhile, Bank Negara Malaysia also announced that Malaysia’s economy expanded by 6.0 per cent in 2Q 2026, surpassing DOSM’s advance estimate of 5.8 per cent, driven by sustained domestic demand and robust export performance.
-- BERNAMA
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