Apex Securities Maintains 2026 GDP Forecast At 4.7 Pct, In Line With BNM Projection Range

KUALA LUMPUR, April 10 (Bernama) -- Apex Securities Bhd maintains its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast at 4.7 per cent year-on-year, which remains in line with Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) 4.0-5.0 per cent projection range.

The research firm said BNM’s wider growth range reflects the strong momentum carried over from the second half of 2025 (2H2025).

BNM guided that, in the absence of heightened geopolitical disruptions, underlying growth could have exceeded the upper end of the current forecast range.

“This is underpinned by sustained electrical and electronic (E&E) demand amid the global artificial intelligence (AI) upcycle, robust investment led by ongoing data centre expansion and continued policy support for domestic consumption,” it said in a research note.

Apex Securities further said that the first quarter (1Q) 2026 advance GDP print on April 17, 2026, should offer clearer signals on the extent of conflict spillovers to the domestic economy. A prolonged conflict would warrant a revision to its current projections.

Nevertheless, Apex Securities cautions about rising downside risks to its growth projection, stemming from the ongoing West Asia conflict. While Malaysia’s direct trade exposure to the region is limited, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global supply chains.

It said Malaysia’s March manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index points to lengthier input delivery times, leading to a depletion of pre-production inventories and finished goods.

“In addition, manufacturers reported a marked increase in transportation, energy and input costs, highlighting intensifying supply disruptions and cost pressures,” it said.

Hence, it also maintained the 2026 manufacturing growth forecast at 4.5 per cent year-on-year (2025: 4.5 per cent).

-- BERNAMA