CPO Price Expected To Trade Between RM4,300 And RM4,600 In First Half Of 2026

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 3 (Bernama) -- The price of crude palm oil (CPO) is expected to trade between RM4,300 and RM4,600 per tonne in the first half of 2026 (1H 2026), with an upside bias early next year as production normalises and policy clarity improves. 

In citing the forecast by Glenauk Economics, CIMB Securities said palm oil production next year is projected to strengthen, with Indonesia’s output rising by three per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) and Malaysia’s by one per cent, to between 19.6 million and 19.8 million tonnes.

“The market has overstated the impact of estate seizures by state-owned PT Agrinas Palma Nusantara, which affects only one million hectares of planted oil palm land in Indonesia, resulting in minimal output loss.

“Glenauk projects Indonesia to maintain its B40 biodiesel mandate in 1H 2026, progressing to B45 in 2H 2026, alongside an export levy hike of between 5.0 and 7.5 per cent between November 2025 and January 2026 to sustain the biodiesel subsidy programme,” it added.

CIMB Securities said that Glenauk’s tracking of managed money and speculative interest in agri-commodities, particularly vegetable oils, revealed that investors were less bullish than a year ago.

However, “CPO prices are forecast to remain within the RM4,300-RM4,600 range in 1H 2026, with an upward bias heading into the first quarter of 2026..

“Key price catalysts include a higher Indonesian biodiesel mandate and Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) data confirming a 6.0–7.0 per cent month-on-month (m-o-m) output contraction in November 2025, followed by double-digit drops in December 2025 and January 2026,” it said.

Additionally, the brokerage said structural fundamentals remain supportive, underpinned by tight stock ratios, favourable weather, and strong biodiesel demand.

-- BERNAMA