ARF Must Evolve As It Enters Next Phase - Experts

By Wan Muhammad Aslah Wan Razali

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 19 (Bernama) -- The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) which will roll out its next phase of action plan post-2025, must move beyond aspirational declarations to stay relevant in the face of fast evolving regional and global security dynamics, analysts said.

The analysts told Bernama that while the forum's decision to revitalise its vision statement in line with ASEAN’s Vision 2045 is timely, ARF must focus on charting concrete and measurable deliverables that reflect current realities.

These include items from traditional security concerns and cybersecurity to misinformation and climate-induced instability.

Professor James Chin of University of Tasmania said the post-2025 framework should prioritise hybrid security challenges, including AI-driven disinformation and climate-induced conflicts, adding that the ARF is an ideal high-level platfom for coordinating cyber responses.

He said capacity-building for smaller states through technology transfers in cybersecurity also must be part of the agenda as its 27 participants include both major and smaller states.

“It can leverage existing mechanisms such as the ASEAN Working Group on Anti-Online Scams (WG-AS) to strengthen regional collaboration,” he said when contacted.

Chin proposed that annual reviews be linked to global indices such as the Global Peace Index and involve greater inclusivity through structured input from non-state actors, such as technology firms and civil society.

He also called for expanding Track 2 diplomacy, informal dialogues among academics, experts, and think tanks, to supplement official negotiations.

Meanwhile, International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM) Professor of ASEAN Studies Dr Phar Kim Beng said the new action plan, which will succeed the Hanoi Plan of Action (HPA) II expiring end of this year, must focus on enhancing connectivity across governments and digital platforms.

He said the ARF, like ASEAN itself, will continue to be guided by cooperation, consensus, consultation, collegiality, and collaboration, with these principles expected to define its decision making process.

“The forum must evolve and deliver tangible results if it is to sustain its objectives as an inclusive and forward-looking regional security architecture,” he said.

On the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) treaty, Chin said progress on the protocol’s accession by nuclear-weapon states (NWS) is realistic in the near term, with China having expressed readiness to sign the protocol in July 2025.

Singapore has also called for individual ratifications by NWS to bypass collective hurdles, he noted.

On this, Chin said the ARF can play a facilitating role by hosting informal dialogues to address the protocol and foster confidence-building between ASEAN and NWS.

Established in 1994, the ARF remains a flagship regional multilateral forum for constructive political-security dialogue and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific under the framework of ASEAN.

With 27 participants, the ARF is one of the most inclusive and politcally diverse security forums globally.

Its participants comprised all 10 ASEAN member states as well as Australia, Bangladesh, Canada, China, European Union, India, Japan, Mongolia, New Zealand, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, South Korea, Russia, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, and the United States.

-- BERNAMA