MBSB IB Expects Malaysia's 2025 Retail Sales Growth To Moderate To 4.6 Pct

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 10 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s retail sales growth is expected to moderate to 4.6 per cent in 2025, compared to 5.5 per cent in 2024.

In a note today, MBSB Investment Bank Bhd (MBSB IB) said that the continued expansion, however, will be underpinned by a resilient labour market, low and stable inflation, rising wages, robust tourism recovery, and supportive monetary policy following July’s overnight policy rate (OPR) cut. 

“These factors are expected to lift household disposable income and sustain broad-based private consumption, despite some drag from policy adjustments. 

“Meanwhile, the BUDI95 fuel subsidy rationalisation is anticipated to have a limited impact on inflation, while the lower pump price should boost disposable income and encourage discretionary spending,” it said.

Overall, MBSB IB said that robust domestic consumption will likely remain the key growth driver, cushioning the economy against external trade uncertainties. 

“While sustained resilience in household spending could warrant an upward revision to our outlook, we remain cautious of downside risks stemming from higher United States tariffs and potentially weaker external demand, which could weigh on both consumer and business sentiment,” it added.

-- BERNAMA