Oil Rebounds As Markets Track US-Iran Ceasefire, Hormuz Situation
KUALA LUMPUR, April 9 (Bernama) -- Oil prices rebounded towards US$100 per barrel amid lingering uncertainty over the two-week United States-Iran ceasefire and Iran’s renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz following Israeli strikes on Lebanon.
At the time of writing, Brent crude rose 2.32 per cent to US$96.95 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 3.01 per cent to US$97.42 per barrel, after both benchmarks fell more than 15 per cent in the previous session.
On Wednesday, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, which included Tehran allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This triggered a sharp knee-jerk reaction with WTI falling as much as 19 per cent to US$91, and Brent declining 16 per cent to US$92.
Standard Chartered said the swift correction may have overshot, with prices likely to spike on any renewed escalation or rhetoric.
"Our second quarter of 2026 Brent crude average forecast is US$98 per barrel, and WTI is US$92.50 per barrel," it said in a note today.
Israel carried out its deadliest attacks on Lebanon since clashes with Hezbollah escalated last month, with more than 250 reportedly killed on Wednesday, as the Iran-backed group resumed rocket fire on northern Israel after a brief lull under the ceasefire.
According to reports, Iran has outlined alternative routes for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, citing risks from sea mines in the main shipping lane. It has revised entry and exit points for the strategic waterway.
Standard Chartered said near-term price movements remain driven by developments in the US-Iran conflict. It noted that tensions have created multiple regional flashpoints, reduced transit through the strait and led to shut-in production in Gulf countries. This draws into focus tight spare capacity and reliance on key transit routes.
"We expect this theme to continue when OPEC launches its maximum sustainable capacity metric," it added.
For Malaysia, CGS International Securities Malaysia Sdn Bhd said the COVID-19 lockdowns are a proxy for a worst-case scenario should West Asia hostilities prolong and disrupt supply chains, necessitating movement restrictions.
Even under such conditions, the brokerage expects the impact to be temporary and sees markets positioning for a recovery.
"The experience of post-COVID lockdown revenge spending, together with the global liquidity response by central banks, should, in our view, keep the market looking forward to signs of a recovery rather than focusing on worst-case scenarios," it said.
-- BERNAMA