KUALA LUMPUR, June 12 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s distributive trade growth is expected to hit 6.1 per cent in 2026, compared with 5.6 per cent in 2025, following stronger-than-expected performance this year driven by wholesale stockpiling, higher petroleum-related prices and a recovery in motor vehicle sales.
Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd (Kenanga IB) said year-to-date distributive trade growth had accelerated to 9.4 per cent from 7.5 per cent in the January-March period.
“This points to front-loaded demand amid concerns over rising cost pressures and supply uncertainties. However, softer retail performance may signal that underlying consumer momentum is beginning to normalise after earlier festive-driven strength,” it said in a research note today.
The investment bank noted that elevated energy prices, persistent geopolitical tensions and prolonged supply chain disruptions could weigh on consumption and business activity in the second half of 2026 (2H 2026).
“Current strength is likely temporary and may be unsustainable in the coming months,” it said.
Meanwhile, Kenanga IB has maintained its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for Malaysia of 4.5 per cent, compared with the 5.2 per cent growth in 2025, reflecting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the economy.
It said monthly indicators, including stronger distributive trade performance and better-than-expected industrial production growth in April, suggest domestic economic activity remains resilient in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q 2026).
“The rebound in motor vehicles and wholesale activity points to some upside support to near-term growth, particularly within services-related sectors. Therefore, we maintain our view that growth momentum will strengthen in the second quarter before slowing in the second half if geopolitical tensions persist and continue to disrupt supply chains,” it said.
-- BERNAMA
