By Nur Atiq Maisarah Suhaimi
KUALA LUMPUR, March 3 (Bernama) -- Tensions in the Middle East risk being prolonged following attacks on United States (US)-linked assets and bases in several Gulf countries, which analysts say could trigger strategic miscalculation and a chain reaction involving multiple parties.
“Retaliatory strikes on US bases in the Gulf region heighten the risk of strategic miscalculation, which could indirectly draw more countries into the conflict,” said Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Asian International Affairs and Diplomacy (AIIAD), School of International Studies (SOIS), Universiti Utara Malaysia, Associate Professor Dr Bakri Mat.
Speaking to Bernama, he said that if the stated objectives of the US involve “regime change” or curbing Iran’s strategic influence, it would signal structural rather than tactical goals.
“Historically, wars in the Middle East, driven by shifts in the balance of power, rarely end quickly.
“In such circumstances, their duration depends greatly on the extent to which major powers are willing to refrain from escalating attacks,” he said.
He added that tensions between the United States, the Zionist regime of Israel and Iran have the potential to trigger greater regional instability than the 1991 Gulf War between Kuwait and Iraq and the 2003 Iraq War, even though they have not yet involved a large-scale ground invasion.
“Modern warfare today involves long-range missiles, drones, cyber capabilities and disruptions to global supply chains. The impact on the global economy is almost immediate.
“Many parties now possess precision strike capabilities and advanced defence systems, making the risk of strategic miscalculation far higher if political control fails to function maturely,” he added.
In facing this uncertainty, Bakri stressed that Malaysia must maintain consistency in its foreign policy, upholding the principle of sovereignty, rejecting unilateral actions and supporting solutions through multilateral diplomacy in line with the Charter of the United Nations and its principled foreign policy tradition.
He also said the government should prepare clear and proactive economic contingency plans, including assessing the impact of oil price spikes, logistical disruptions and domestic inflation, while accelerating energy diversification, strengthening strategic petroleum reserves and transitioning to renewable energy.
“The most rational response for Malaysia is not harsh rhetoric, but strategic preparedness and prudent risk management to ensure national interests remain protected.
“In situations like this, policy maturity and strategic discipline are crucial for a small country like Malaysia,” he added.
Meanwhile, geostrategist Professor Dr Azmi Hassan said the tensions risk escalating into a larger war if Gulf countries hosting US military bases begin retaliating.
“If many public areas in Gulf countries are targeted, whether deliberately or otherwise, there is a possibility these countries will launch attacks, but so far that has not happened… if it does, it will be difficult to find common ground for discussions,” he told Bernama.
On whether Malaysians should return home immediately from affected countries, both analysts emphasised that individual safety must be the top priority.
Bakri said for those in high-risk areas, particularly near military bases or strategic infrastructure, there are strong grounds to consider temporarily relocating to safer areas as a precautionary measure.
“If circumstances permit, returning home is the best option, especially as conflicts can change rapidly, including the possibility of airspace closures or disruptions to commercial flights,” he added.
On Saturday, Israel’s Zionist regime, together with the US, launched a military operation against Iran, which was later met with retaliatory strikes by Iran against Israel and several US interests in Gulf countries.
--BERNAMA
