KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 16 (Bernama) -- CIMB Treasury and Markets Research has revised its 2026 gross domestic product (GDP) forecast upward to 4.4 per cent from 4.1 per cent previously, supported by continued growth momentum in the services and construction sectors but balanced by moderation in manufacturing.
In a research note today, it said that the advanced estimate for the fourth quarter growth in 2025 has surprised again, showing a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 5.7 per cent, leading to an overall growth of 4.9 per cent for the full year.
“We expect the strong momentum in the services sector to be carried into 2026 on the back of the second round of civil servants’ salary hike, the February 2026 disbursement of Sumbangan Asas Rahmah (SARA) aid for all, as well as the Visit Malaysia Year.
“This will likely be tempered by a slowdown in the manufacturing sector as demand for exports (particularly in non-electric and electronics) weakens, leading to an average GDP growth of 4.4 per cent in 2026,” it said.
CIMB Treasury and Markets Research also said that compared to its GDP preview earlier this week, services posted a positive surprise at 5.4 per cent y-o-y growth (CIMB: 5.0 per cent), with the Department of Statistics Malaysia (DOSM) highlighting strong performance in the wholesale & retail trade, transportation & storage, as well as food & beverages and accommodation subsectors.
Construction recorded 11.9 per cent y-o-y growth (3Q25:11.8 per cent; CIMB: 8.0 per cent), marking the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth supported by non-residential buildings and specialised construction activities.
Taking into account the revised outlook, CIMB Treasury and Markets Research said that it no longer calls for a 25 basis point rate cut to the overnight policy rate (OPR) and instead expects Bank Negara Malaysia to keep the OPR unchanged in the upcoming January meeting, throughout the rest of 2026.
“On the other side of the equation, inflation is likely to average around 1.5 per cent y-o-y in 2026 with no clear signs of upward pressure as energy and input costs remain low. Nonetheless, we remain on the lookout for any signs of hawkish language in next week’s Monetary Policy Committee statement,” it said.
-- BERNAMA
