Oil Likely To Trade Between US$65-US$80 Over Next 6-12 Months - Analyst
KUALA LUMPUR, June 23 (Bernama) -- Oil prices are likely to move between US$65 and US$80 per barrel over the next six to 12 months amid ongoing uncertainties surrounding negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran, according to a veteran oil market analyst.
Onyx Capital group managing director Jorge Montepeque said negotiations between the US and Iran are progressing gradually, although the process remains fragile due to longstanding tensions and trust issues between the two countries.
"I think oil prices are going to be between US$65 and US$80, with the occasional spike where we can see it move above US$80 if there is kinetic action between Iran and the US.
“But the oil market has a lot of oil waiting to be released from the Persian Gulf, and I think that's going to keep oil prices below US$84 on average for the rest of the year,” he said during Bernama TV's Bernama World programme on the topic "Oil & Gas Markets Amid Renewed Risks" aired today.
Montepeque said the market is currently pricing in expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open and that oil flows will continue, but warned that confidence remains fragile due to the uncertainty surrounding negotiations.
On Asia's vulnerability to gas supply disruptions, Montepeque described the region as "extremely vulnerable".
“Malaysia is a country that is very well positioned because it is a producer, but the rest are really vulnerable. Their balance between production and consumption is so lopsided,” he said.
Meanwhile, asked about the potential impact of the United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation on global energy markets, Montepeque said the development was unlikely to significantly affect global oil supply and demand dynamics.
"They (the UK) are very small and are not producing very much oil from the North Sea. So it doesn't change global supply or demand at all,” he said.
-- BERNAMA