CIMB Maintains 2026 GDP Forecast At 4.5 Pct despite US Supreme Court Striking Down Trump's Tariffs

KUALA LUMPUR, Feb 23 (Bernama) -- CIMB Treasury and Markets Research has maintained its forecast for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 4.5 per cent in 2026, despite the US Supreme Court striking down the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs.

On Feb 20, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA-based tariffs, including his reciprocal tariffs.  

After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs, the US president reinstated a 15 per cent tariff from  Feb 24 for 150 days, cutting levies on most Asian exporters. In a research note today, CIMB Treasury and Markets Research said the decision to retain the projection is based on the fact that the tariff regime and trade agreements remain in flux.

“Under a more constructive scenario where the 15 per cent tariff is sustained with minimal net impact from substitution effects, Malaysia (+0.10 per cent pt) could see potential growth uplift.

“With robust export tailwinds, the decline in US effective tariffs from 15.3 per cent to 13.2 per cent does not move the needle on growth or policy rates,” it said.

CIMB Treasury and Markets Research added that refunds from the US$150 billion to US$175 billion in IEEPA tariffs are likely to be partial and staggered due to legal procedures.

-- BERNAMA