CIMB IB Sees Malaysia’s 4Q 2025 GDP Growth At 5.3 Pct, Full-year At 4.8 Pct
KUALA LUMPUR, Jan 13 (Bernama) -- Strong crude palm oil production and manufacturing performance likely propelled the country’s fourth quarter (4Q 2025) gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5.3 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), implying a full-year growth of 4.8 per cent, said CIMB Investment Bank Bhd.
The bank said bumper palm oil production likely boosted growth by 0.4 percentage points.
Monthly data indicated that crude palm oil production accelerated in 4Q 2025 - rising from 13.7 per cent y-o-y in October to 23.1 per cent y-o-y in December, due to higher fresh fruit bunch yields as well as a slightly lower base in 4Q 2024 compared to previous years.
“The bumper palm oil harvest posed an upside surprise to our growth forecast (likely a 0.4 percentage points boost to 4Q 2025 GDP) as it was uncharacteristic of the annual seasonal pattern, which typically sees production decreasing to lower levels in the last two months of the year.
“Looking ahead into 2026, CPO production is likely to fall lower in the first quarter in line with the seasonal trend, with some slight payback to be expected in 4Q 2026,” it said.
Similarly, CIMB IB has forecast that the manufacturing sector’s growth increased by 5.8 per cent y-o-y in 4Q 2025 (3Q 2025: 4.1 per cent), reflecting strong monthly industrial production data.
“Industrial production expanded by 6.0 per cent y-o-y in October 2025 before moderating to 4.3 per cent y-o-y in November, as manufacturing and mining output growth slowed. The manufacturing industrial production index in 4Q 2025 was lifted by growth in export-oriented industries (October: 7.2 per cent; November: 5.0 per cent y-o-y), while domestic-oriented industries’ output growth remained stable,” it said.
It said that among export-oriented industries, growth was led by computer, electronics, and optical products (November: 10.7 per cent y-o-y; October: 14.2 per cent), followed by electrical equipment (November: 13.9 per cent y-o-y; October: 9.3 per cent), in line with the electrical and electronics (E&E)-led export growth narrative.
“Nonetheless, we continue to expect some slowdown in export-oriented industries, particularly among non-E&E manufacturers, as higher US tariffs and a stronger ringgit dampen demand in 2026,” it said.
-- BERNAMA