AmBank Group Projects Moderate Four Pct Malaysia GDP Growth For 2Q 2025

KUALA LUMPUR, July 17 (Bernama) -- AMMB Holdings Bhd (AmBank Group) expects Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at a moderate rate of around four per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q 2025), supported by continued front-loading activities that benefit the external sector.

Its chief economist Firdaos Rosli said the growth momentum seen in 1Q 2025 is likely to ease in 2Q due to weaker industrial output.

“We think 2Q GDP will ease slightly, mainly due to the softer industrial production index (IPI). But, overall growth should remain in the low four per cent range,” he told reporters after speaking as a panellist at the National Economic Forum 2025 today.

Firdaos added that the strong 1Q performance was likely driven by early economic activity, but external challenges are expected to weigh on the subsequent quarter.

For the full year, the bank projects GDP growth at 3.8 per cent, which is slightly below the World Bank’s forecast of 3.9 per cent, as weaker consumer and investment confidence continue to affect overall economic momentum, reflecting broader signs of a slowdown.

“Tariff uncertainties remain a key concern, particularly given the bilateral nature of trade decisions in the United States,” he said.

The Department of Statistics Malaysia is scheduled to announce the advance GDP estimates for 2Q 2025 tomorrow, followed by an official announcement on Aug 15, 2025.

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), Firdaos said AmBank expects it to remain at 2.75 per cent until the end of the year.

On July 9, Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) reduced the OPR by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent, a pre-emptive measure to preserve Malaysia’s steady growth path amid moderate inflation prospects.

BNM last kept the OPR at 2.75 per cent in March 2023. The rate was increased to three per cent in May 2023.

-- BERNAMA