MATRADE Maintains 2026 Trade Growth Forecast At 3-5 Pct Despite Geopolitical Risks
KUALA LUMPUR, April 21 (Bernama) -- Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (MATRADE) has maintained its 2026 trade growth projection of three per cent to five per cent, underpinned by a cautious outlook amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in West Asia.
Its chairman, Datuk Seri Reezal Merican Naina Merican, said recent trade performance, particularly March data, provides an early indication of conditions that may unfold in the coming months.
“However, if tensions escalate further and trigger a global recession, we may need to revise our projections. I would say I want to wait until the end of April. I will see what pattern will slowly begin to form,” he said at a media briefing on Malaysia’s first quarter (1Q) 2026 trade performance here today.
Reezal Merican noted that West Asia accounts for about 2.7 per cent, or RM21.41 billion, of Malaysia’s total trade, suggesting that direct exposure remains limited.
He noted that developments in the region warranted close monitoring, as indirect effects, including higher goods prices, rising freight costs and elevated war risk premiums, could weigh on export competitiveness and overall trade performance.
Malaysia recorded steady trade performance growth in 1Q 2026, with exports climbing 12.7 per cent to RM426.53 billion and a trade surplus of RM63.22 billion, marking a 54 per cent surge compared to the same period last year.
Despite this growth, MATRADE’s internal monitoring and industry data indicate that 90.5 per cent of manufacturers are currently affected by global disruptions, specifically through rising logistics costs and raw material shortages, and MATRADE anticipates that the adverse effects will only be felt from the second quarter onwards.
Reezal Merican urged Malaysian exporters to diversify their products in other prospective industries such as food and beverage, which accounted for 1.9 per cent of Malaysia's total trade, pharmaceuticals, and energy.
He added that MATRADE's goal is to move the national conversation from simply acknowledging 'crisis impact' to a stance of 'proactive facilitation'.
"Through intelligence, digital innovation and targeted government support, we will ensure Malaysian exporters remain shielded from global shocks and continue to defend our nation's trade momentum while minimising the impact of disruptions," he said.
Reezal Merican said MATRADE is intensifying its monitoring by leveraging the agency's 47 overseas offices as Frontline Intelligence Hubs to provide exporters with real-time data on port connectivity and tactical routing.
He shared that MATRADE overseas offices were actively facilitating tactical rerouting solutions and market access complexities for exporters, such as diverting cargo to stable regional hubs and ports like Sohar and Salalah, as well as exploring alternative land or railway routes to bypass maritime chokepoints.
"By evolving the role of our trade commissioners to identify the supply gaps arising from geopolitical tension and sourcing alternative materials, we are keeping Malaysian industries running even when traditional supply lines are under strain," he added.
-- BERNAMA
