IMF Releases Key Global Economic Forecasts

WASHINGTON, April 14 (Bernama-Sputnik/RIA Novosti) -- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a series of reports on global growth forecasts, inflation, oil prices, the performance of the United States (US) dollar, and GDP outlook in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) published on Tuesday, reported Sputnik/RIA Novosti.

The IMF has downgraded its global GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1 per cent due to the military conflict in West Asia, while maintaining its estimate for 2027. 

"Under the reference forecast, global growth is projected to be 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027 ... The forecast for 2026 is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point and that for 2027 is unchanged, compared with that in the January 2026 WEO Update ... Once again, the global economy is threatened with being thrown off course – this time by the conflict in West Asia at the end of February 2026," the report said.

It said global inflation is expected to increase to 4.4 per cent in 2026 and then dip to 3.7 per cent in 2027.

"Global inflation is projected to pause its decline, with headline inflation increasing from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.4 per cent in 2026 before falling back to 3.7 per cent in 2027," the IMF said in its WEO report.

As for oil prices, IMF said it is expected to rise by 21.4 per cent this year, with the spot price index set to averaging US$82 per barrel.

"Oil prices are expected to increase by 21.4 per cent on account of disruptions to production and transportation in West Asia, corresponding to the average petroleum spot price index averaging US$82 per barrel," the IMF said in its report.

In 2027, the assumed oil price, based on futures markets, is projected to total US$75.97, according to the IMF. 

Meanwhile, the IMF has lowered its forecast for US GDP growth in 2026 while raising its projection for 2027.

"In the US, the economy is projected to expand by 2.3 per cent in 2026 … This 0.1 percentage point downward revision relative to the January 2026 WEO Update," the report said.

In 2027, the IMF projects growth to total 2.1 per cent, a 0.1 percentage point upward revision.

As for the greenback, the IMF said the US Dollar depreciated by six per cent between the beginning of April and the end of December 2025.

"The US dollar depreciated by six per cent between April 1 and the end of December, in contrast to the appreciation typically expected after a persistent increase in US tariffs," the WEO stated.

Despite representing a medium-term risk, the dollar's depreciation provided near-term monetary policy space and enhanced balance sheets in emerging and developing market economies, the document said, highlighting that it increased competitiveness in countries whose currencies are closely tied to the US dollar.

-- BERNAMA-SPUTNIK/RIA NOVOSTI