IEA Lowers Forecast For Global Oil Refining In 2026 By 800,000bpd Over West Asia

MOSCOW, March 12 (Bernama-Sputnik/RIA Novosti) -- The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecast for global oil refining capacity in 2026 by 800,000 barrels per day.

This was due to refinery shutdowns in West Asia and a possible oil shortage, to 83.8 million barrels per day, the organisation said in its fresh report on Thursday.

"Precautionary run cuts outside the Gulf are increasingly evident, with refineries declaring force majeure on exports... Although the situation remains fluid, for now we estimate 2026 runs will be flat y-o-y at 83.8 mb/d, down 800 kb/d from last month’s Report," the report read, reported Sputnik/RIA Novosti.

According to the report's table, the IEA expects global refining throughput to reach 83.8 million barrels per day in 2026, a slight decrease from the 2025 figure of 83.9 million.

Last month, the IEA expected refining throughput to increase to 84.6 million barrels per day. Therefore, this month's forecast has been reduced by 800,000 barrels per day.

--BERNAMA-SPUTNIK/RIA NOVOSTI