Malaysia’s Export Outlook Points To Moderate Growth Amid Global Trade Shifts

PETALING JAYA, Jan 12 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s export outlook is characterised by moderate growth this year as the global economy adjusts to shifting trade patterns and new tariff structures. 

Malaysia External Trade Development Corporation (MATRADE) senior director, strategic planning division, Raja Badrulnizam Raja Kamalzaman said while domestic demand remains the primary driver, exports are expected to continue expanding albeit at a slower pace than in 2024-2025.

The key driver of growth is the tech upcycle whereby demand for electrical and electronic (E&E)  products remains Malaysia’s strongest suit.

“The continued global push for artificial intelligence applications and semiconductor advanced packaging is expected to keep E&E exports on a firm footing,” he said during a presentation of export outlook at the MBSB Market and Export Outlook 2026 today.

Besides that, tourism as a ‘service export’ will also be the key driver for exports this year as it is the Visit Malaysia 2026 year, said Raja Badrulnizam.

“The service export account is projected to see a substantial surge in ‘travel receipts’ as visitor arrivals are expected to hit record highs,” he said.

In addition, a recovery in the mining sector is anticipated as domestic production of liquefied natural gas and crude oil resumes full capacity following an extensive maintenance cycle in 2025.

He said the target average annual growth rate for 2026-2030 is 5.8 per cent with the goal for total goods export value to reach RM2.09 trillion by 2030.

Among the high-growth high-value exports are E&E, halal industry and agriculture.

However, he noted that major risks and headwinds are the stronger ringgit and US tariff impacts, global demand moderation and China’s economic shift.

“For US tariff impacts -- the full-year effect is more pronounced in 2026 and may reduce competitiveness in integrated sectors,” he added.

Raja Badrulnizam said Malaysia’s trade performance had sustained growth in the first 11 months of 2025 with trade rising 5.8 per cent to RM2.78 trillion with exports growing 6.1 per cent to RM1.45 trillion while imports also increased to RM1.32 trillion.

The top markets from January-November 2025 were ASEAN (RM418.78 billion), US (RM204.90 billion), China (RM170.13 billion), European Union (RM116.70 billion) and Hong Kong (RM85.31 billion).

-- BERNAMA