By Dr Yusa Djuyandi and Dr Mohamad Hafifi Jamri

In the month of Ramadan, at the end of February 2026, the world witnessed a major escalation in the conflict in the Middle East when the United States and Israel launched a military attack on Iran, claiming it was a pre-emptive strike to counter Tehran's nuclear and military threats.

However, beyond this rationale, this event had serious repercussions that went far beyond short-term strategic objectives-impacts that affected the geopolitical order, the global economy, and international legal norms.

Threats to law, security and international order

The joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran drew sharp criticism from various parties around the world.

Several countries condemned this action as an "unprovoked attack of aggression" and a violation of Iran's sovereignty.

This was not the first time that the United States and Israel had carried out such aggression and provocation against Iran.

In 2025, they had also carried out several airstrikes on Iran, and these attacks had not only affected Iranian military personnel and infrastructure but also civilians.

Within the framework of international law, the principle of jus ad bellum – which governs when a state may use military force – requires a clear and imminent threat to conduct military operations.

Therefore, in the absence of evidence of a threat to state sovereignty or regional security, an attack on another state can be perceived as unlawful.

Consequently, the legitimacy of collective action through multilateral mechanisms is questioned.

However, this is not the first time this has been done by the United States or its allies.

The United States also attacked Iraq under the pretext of Saddam Hussein's government developing weapons of mass destruction.

It was later discovered that Iraq did not possess any weapons of mass destruction at the time, as the United States and its allies had alleged.

The accusations against Iran that it possesses or is developing nuclear weapons are also nothing new, but amid these accusations and pressure, Iran remains open to dialogue and diplomacy with the United States.

As we know, negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding Iran's nuclear programme have been ongoing for the past few days, but they have been undermined by Donald Trump's political decisions, which are considered impatient and overly supportive of Israel's political interests.

The American and Israeli attacks on Iran are not simply bilateral clashes; Iran's response, which involved retaliatory attacks on US military posts in the Gulf and elsewhere, highlights the danger of widespread escalation.

A conflict involving multiple Gulf states, such as Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, could even open new fronts across multiple countries.

This creates the potential for a protracted conflict, shifting from a simple, coordinated military operation to a protracted war that could trigger a larger military coalition and involve other global powers such as Russia and China.

Impact on the global economy – risks of an energy crisis and markets

Iran is a major oil producer and strategically controls vital shipping lanes such as the Strait of Hormuz, which carries approximately 20 per cent of the world's energy supply.

The threat of disruption to this route raises serious concerns about spikes in energy prices, disruptions to global logistics, and inflationary pressures for countries heavily dependent on imported energy.

Following the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, several major oil companies and carriers suspended shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran even declared closure of the route, causing ships to stop sailing near key ports.

A closure or disruption to the Strait of Hormuz significantly threatens the flow of global energy supplies, as there are no equivalent direct alternatives.

When energy supplies are threatened, prices rise, and rising oil and LNG prices could have a direct impact on the global economy, depressing growth and exacerbating economic instability amidst the post-pandemic recovery.

Developing countries, in particular, will be highly vulnerable to rising energy and staple food costs that spill over into other sectors.

Regional crisis and threats

American and Israeli military attacks on numerous sites in Iran have not only destroyed military infrastructure and strategic facilities but also hit civilian facilities.

These attacks have also caused immense suffering in major Iranian cities, including civilian casualties.

The humanitarian impact cannot be ignored: hospitals are overwhelmed, families are displaced, and lasting trauma is part of the reality of this conflict.

Furthermore, the conflict could strengthen nationalist policies within Iran and strengthen resistance to foreign pressure.

Paradoxically, this attack, originally intended to "weaken the regime”, could strengthen solidarity within the country itself; it is a paradox that this attack, initially aimed at "weakening the regime”, strengthened solidarity within the country itself.

The global reaction to this aggression was not uniform. Western European countries called for de-escalation and a return to negotiations.

Some countries condemned the military action, deeming it detrimental to ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Diplomatic tensions escalated, and many countries were forced to take stances that affected bilateral relations and commitments to historical alliances.

The military attack by the United States and Israel on Iran was not simply a strategic military operation.

Its impact spread across multiple dimensions, potentially triggering a global crisis due to widespread and prolonged conflict.

When diplomacy fails amidst military threats, the first victims are not only the attacked country, but the entire global order built on the principles of dialogue and international law.

-- BERNAMA

Dr Yusa Djuyandi is a Lecturer and Researcher on Political Science and Security Studies at Universitas Padjadjaran, Indonesia.

Dr Mohamad Hafifi Jamri is a Senior Lecturer at the School of Multimedia Technology and Communication, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia.