The Doomsday Clock was moved forward by one second to 89 seconds before midnight last January, signalling that the world is getting closer to an unprecedented catastrophe. The clock, which considers various existential threats, especially nuclear war, was last moved in January 2023, when the time was set at 90 seconds to midnight.

Although largely symbolic, the Doomsday Clock, maintained by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board (SASB) has since its creation in 1947, served as a credible reminder of the dangers posed by weapons of mass destruction.

The SASB justified the one-second adjustment to the clock by highlighting the growing threat of nuclear conflict due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the never-ending conflict in the Middle East and inadequate contacts among nuclear powers and the collapse of the nuclear arms control process.

As the Doomsday Clock moves closer to midnight, ASEAN must intensify its efforts to convince nuclear powers to acknowledge the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (SEANWFZ).

Point of concern

As pointed out by the Malaysian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Datuk Seri Mohamad Hassan, in his opening remarks before the meeting of the SEANWFZ Commission on July 8, “it is deeply concerning” that SEANWFZ is the only nuclear weapon-free zone that has not been formally recognised by the nuclear powers.

However, the efforts to win the recognition of nuclear powers must go beyond symbolic gestures. Concrete and practical steps are necessary to ensure the SEANWFZ Treaty can be a meaningful tool to ensure regional peace and stability.

Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono’s call for ASEAN to focus on concluding a clear memorandum and timeline with China offers a practical path to building the pressure needed for broader recognition of the treaty. China has stated readiness to sign the SEANWFZ Protocol.

Besides China, another Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) under the non-proliferation treaty (NPT), Russia, has reportedly expressed its intent to join the treaty, while the United States is in the process of assessing its potential participation.

Given devastating reach of nuclear weapons, expanding the geographic coverage of the SEANWFZ may be a strategic way to transform it into a more meaningful force for peace and stability.

It is not a straightforward process, but this will be partly achieved later this year. With Timor-Leste’s accession to ASEAN, the geographical coverage of the treaty will be expanded.

This is a strategic gain for ASEAN. Extending the treaty into the Timor Sea brings the SEANWFZ nearer to a region shaped by the strategic interests of two NWS, the United States and the United Kingdom.

Collaboration

Beyond Southeast Asia, the treaty’s objective can also be achieved by collaborating with other similar nuclear-free zones as suggested by Minister Mohamad in his remarks after the SEANWFZ Commission meeting.

When weapons of mass destruction were last used, Southeast Asia was a direct beneficiary. The bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki led to Japan’s surrender, bringing peace and stability back to Malaysia and other parts of Southeast Asia.

The potential use of weapons of mass destruction today may be governed by a more robust military doctrine and safeguards compared to August 1945, but modern nuclear weapons could potentially be more devastating than those dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Having once benefited from the use of weapons of mass destruction, Malaysia as ASEAN Chair now bears the moral responsibility together with other member states to maintain a nuclear weapon-free Southeast Asia and to convince nuclear powers that the horrors of August 1945 remain in the past.

This year marks the 30th anniversary of the SEANWFZ. It is not just the foundation of ASEAN’s security architecture but an important manifestation of ASEAN unity. It is one of the organisation’s success stories, but a glorious past is meaningless if it cannot stop a global catastrophe.

To remain relevant, the SEANWFZ needs to be accepted by the five NWS. In the long term, the treaty will only be judged by its ability to stop the Doomsday Clock from moving closer to midnight.

-- BERNAMA

Adib Zalkapli is the Managing Director of Viewfinder Global Affairs, a Malaysia-based geopolitical advisory firm.