STANCHART: MALAYSIA HEADING IN RIGHT DIRECTION TOWARDS ECONOMIC GROWTH

KUALA LUMPUR, April 15 (Bernama) -- Malaysia’s economic growth is expected to recover to 4.8 per cent in 2024 versus 3.7 per cent in 2023, as external demand continues to improve moderately in the quarters ahead, according to Standard Chartered Bank Malaysia Bhd (StanChart).

In its Global Focus – Economic Outlook Q2-2024 report today, it said that exports rose 3.9 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first two months of 2024 (2M-2024), improving from the 6.9 per cent y-o-y contraction in the fourth quarter of 2023.

“That said, the key electronics cluster recovery was slow, contracting 10.9 per cent y-o-y in 2M-2024. We expect the sector to play catch-up to the broader electronic recovery,” the bank said in its report.

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On Malaysia’s foreign direct investment (FDI), StanChart said the interest remains encouraging as total approved FDI reached RM188 billion in 2023, up 15 per cent, of which manufacturing investment accounted for 70 per cent.

This should help support overall investment, which rose 5.5 per cent in 2023, the report said.

“On Malaysia’s trade surplus, the value narrowed to RM10.5 billion in 2M-2024, compared with RM17.8 billion in 2023, partly due to smaller electronics and commodity surpluses.

“We expect the merchandise trade balance to improve in the coming months. The electronics trade surplus should catch up with the recovery in the global tech cycle, while slightly higher crude palm oil prices have led to an improvement in the commodity trade balance in recent months,” it said.

On the services front, the continued recovery in inbound tourism should further narrow the services trade deficit, StanChart said.

On banking policy, Standard Chartered expects Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to maintain its policy rate at three per cent this year.

In the latest March monetary policy statement, the central bank reiterated that its current stance is supportive of the economy. 

“We believe BNM will look past any one-off effects of the subsidy reduction and will primarily consider the second-round impact,” it said.

Meanwhile, Standard Chartered also said that cyclical factors turn more supportive of global trade subdued demand from Europe, the United States and China this year is likely to remain a headwind to trade-dependent economies.

“That said, some cyclical factors are turning more supportive of global trade. The electronics downturn is ending as inventories normalise, and structural drivers including the artificial intelligence ‘super-cycle’ are lifting tech demand.

“Economies such as Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam should benefit,” it added.

-- BERNAMA